iii. Predictive Modeling & Forecasting

Predictive modeling and forecasting use historical and real-time data to estimate future outcomes. These techniques support planning, risk assessment, and decision-making by providing probabilistic views of what may occur under defined assumptions.

Baseline Forecast

An initial projection based on current conditions and standard assumptions.

Confidence Interval

A range of values that expresses the uncertainty associated with a prediction.

Forecast Horizon

The length of time into the future for which predictions are generated.

Input Variable

A data element used by a predictive model to generate outputs.

Model Assumption

A condition or premise built into a predictive model that shapes its results.

Predictive Model

A model designed to estimate future outcomes based on historical patterns.

Regression Analysis

A statistical method used to estimate relationships between variables.

Scenario Analysis

The evaluation of multiple possible future outcomes based on different assumptions.

Time Series Data

Sequential data points collected over time, often used for forecasting trends.

Forecast Error

The difference between predicted values and actual observed outcomes.